After two months of drawdowns, Bitcoin (BTC) has posted a 3.77% gain in April, signaling early signs of recovery.
Following March’s dip to new yearly lows of $74,500, the cryptocurrency is now trading closer to $84,000–$86,000, with bulls targeting the $90,000 level.
However, technical and market factors suggest that BTC may struggle to break above this resistance zone in the short term.
A Leverage-Driven Recovery
Recent data shows that BTC’s April rally has been driven primarily by futures market activity. A spike in cumulative net taker volume — rising to $800 million on April 11 — triggered a sharp price jump from $78,000 to $85,000 in just three days. This aligns with past patterns, where aggressive buying in derivatives markets has led to short-term rallies.
However, analysts warn that this momentum may not hold unless spot market demand picks up. Metrics such as 30-day apparent demand are still below net positive, suggesting that retail and long-term investors remain cautious despite improving price action.
$80K–$90K: A High-Stakes Zone
Liquidation data from CoinGlass reveals that the $80,000–$90,000 range holds billions of dollars in open interest. If BTC hits $90,035, nearly $6.5 billion in short positions could be liquidated. Conversely, a drop to $80,071 would wipe out $4.86 billion in long positions.
This liquidity clustering could create short- or long-squeeze scenarios, making the area highly volatile. As a result, Bitcoin may continue trading within this band until stronger spot demand or a clear macro trigger emerges.
Resistance Levels Remain Intact
Despite breaking a multimonth downward trendline, Bitcoin still faces multiple resistance hurdles. The 200-day SMA, currently at $87,566, remains a key level to watch. While some traders, like SuperBro, see this as a stepping stone to eventually breaking past $100K, others like veteran trader Peter Brandt remain skeptical, downplaying the significance of trendline breaks in signaling long-term trend shifts.
Market sentiment remains mixed, with analysts such as Stockmoney Lizards expecting a continued consolidation phase between $78K–$88K before any major upward breakout. Until then, BTC’s price action may remain choppy and driven by futures positioning rather than strong spot inflows.
