Several major global stock indices have officially entered bear market territory:
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Nasdaq 100
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Russell 2000
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Nikkei 225
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Magnificent 7 Index
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average are now less than 5% from crossing the same threshold. Since reaching its all-time high less than two months ago, the S&P 500 has lost over $7.5 trillion in market capitalization.
This marks the third bear market of the 2020s. According to analysts, the current downturn has echoes of the 2022 bear market, with sharp losses in major technology stocks. Companies like Nvidia (NVDA) are down more than 40% from their peak.
Meanwhile, the Volatility Index (VIX) has risen, although it remains contained compared to past crises.
Tariffs Spark Panic
The market rout was triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 10% across-the-board import tariff. The list of affected countries now includes more than 50 nations.
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Economists now estimate the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 at 59%, according to Kalshi.
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Thursday saw the largest 2-day drop in stocks since the pandemic in 2020.
Bitcoin Shows Relative Strength
Amid the broad market sell-off, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $83,100, holding steady while traditional markets continue to decline. According to Standard Chartered, BTC could rise back to $88,500 as early as this weekend, recovering to pre-tariff levels.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, emphasized Bitcoin’s emerging role as:
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A “U.S. isolation” hedge
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A traditional finance (TradFi) risk hedge
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A technology-like asset with defensive qualities
In a research note, Kendrick said that in the last 36 hours:
“Strongest performers were Microsoft and Bitcoin… same again so far today in BTC spot and tech futures.”
Comparison to Tech Stocks
A chart shared by Standard Chartered showed that while tech giants like Apple and Meta dropped nearly 9% on Thursday, Bitcoin and Microsoft performed significantly better. Kendrick noted that Bitcoin is now:
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Delivering upside during risk-on moves
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Providing protection during risk-off moments
Earlier, Kendrick proposed a revised version of the Magnificent 7 tech index—named Mag7B—in which Tesla is replaced with Bitcoin. This alternative basket showed higher returns and lower volatility than the original.
